Shape the economy. See the trade-offs.
Explore fiscal, monetary and structural choices across a 1–10 year horizon.
ⓘ Model & methodology
What this simulator is. This is an illustrative, stylised macro model using calibrated multipliers—not a formal forecast. It is educational only: the relationships are simplified, the coefficients are not a complete empirical model, and results should not be treated as predictions or policy advice.
How to read it. Sliders change inputs, and the headline KPIs update. The selected horizon compounds the year-by-year simulation. Values are shown as % GDP or an index where labelled; house prices are $k. The baseline is anchored to current Australian reality as represented by the baseline table below.
The model loop
Each year from 1..H, we compute economic growth from fiscal/tax/migration/structural effects, feed that into inflation (via demand, housing and fuel excise), the Phillips curve (unemployment→wages), then the budget (revenue−spending), then debt accumulation, and compound GDP forward.
Actual formulas (each year y in 1..H; d(k) = slider value − baseline)
taxes = −(d(effectiveTax)*.06 + d(topTax)*.015 + d(companyTax)*.025 + d(gst)*.04) wealth = (house/810 − 1)*.10; migrationDemand = (d(migration)/100)*.10
debtDrag = (debtRatio − 18.8)*.02 (+ d(infraBank)*.05); monetary = d(cashRate)*.12 structuralGrowth = −d(offshoreTax)*.06 − d(globalMinTax)*.06 + d(taxFreeThreshold)*.04 + d(infraBank)*.30 + d(nuclear)*.03 − d(wealthFund)*.02 growth = 2.1 + spending + taxes + migrationDemand + wealth + structuralGrowth − monetary − debtDrag − d(carbon)*.002 [clamped −5..8]
house = house * clamp(0.75..1.25, 1 + houseChange)
housingPressure = houseChange*8 targetInfl = 3.5 − .30*d(cashRate) + .25*(growth−2.1) + .08*(migration/100) + housingPressure*.10 + d(carbon)*.002 + d(gst)*.20 − d(nuclear)*.03
inflation = prevInfl + .30*(targetInfl−prevInfl) + .12*(2.5−prevInfl) [clamped −1..12] unemployment = clamp(2..12, 4.5 − .4*(growth−2.1) + d(cashRate)*.04 − d(nuclear)*.02)
wages = 3.4 − .4*(unemployment−4.5) + .3*(inflation−2.5) − .1*d(cashRate)
spend = 27 + d(defence)+d(health)+d(education)+d(welfare)+d(infrastructure) + d(infraBank)*.5 − d(efficiency)*.8
budget = −1.6 + (revenue−25.5) − (spend−27) − d(wealthFund)*.02 disposable = 100 − d(effectiveTax)*.72 − d(topTax)*.10 − d(gst)*.25 + d(taxFreeThreshold)*.4 + d(infraBank)*.3 + (wages−3.4)*.32 + (house/810−1)*6 + (migration/100)*.03
trade = −1.2 + (migration/100)*.16 − (house/810−1)*.4 − d(carbon)*.015 + d(offshoreTax)*.04 + d(globalMinTax)*.03 + (growth−2.1)*.1
deficitDelta = (−budget+1.6)/100*gdp; interestDelta = debt*d(cashRate... note rate var)/100 − .188*4.35/100; debt += deficitDelta + interestDelta − d(wealthFund)*.17/100; gdp *= 1 + growth/100
Returned at H: debt = debt/gdp*100; growth and inflation are average annual values; unemployment, wages, house and the other outputs are end-year values. Fuel excise raises revenue and fuel/CPI inflation while modestly reducing growth; abolishing duplicated administration saves spending and improves productivity, with a small near-term public-sector employment cost.
Structural & energy levers
Productivity raises long-run growth, wages, disposable income and the tax base. Home-building subsidies reduce housing pressure while adding construction activity. Renewables and nuclear share one clean-energy channel: cleanShare = clamp(0..100, d(renewables)+d(nuclear))/10, so the two complements are not double-counted. Subsidies support demand; superannuation adds retirement wealth and investment; CGT discount and payroll tax work through revenue, investment, employment and housing. Efficiency reforms save duplicated administration and lift productivity, but shed some public-sector jobs near term.
cleanShare=(d(renewables)+d(nuclear))/10; growth += cleanShare*.02; inflation −= cleanShare*.03growth += d(super)*.015 + d(productivity)*.9 + d(cgtDiscount)*.03 − d(payrollTax)*.03 + d(efficiency)*.30
disposable += d(super)*.10 + d(productivity)*.6; wages += d(productivity)*.5; revenue += −d(super)*.02 − d(cgtDiscount)*.10 + d(productivity)*.10 + d(payrollTax)*.10
Each KPI’s formula
- GDP Growth = baseline 2.1 + spending + taxes + migration + wealth + structural − monetary − debt drag − fuel excise + efficiency productivity (each term is defined above).
- Inflation = demand-gap + monetary + housing + migration + GST + nuclear − carbon + fuel excise, converging toward the 2.5 target each year.
- Unemployment = Okun’s-law (−0.4 × growth gap) + cash-rate + nuclear + 0.02 × efficiency.
- Wage Growth = Phillips (−0.4 × unemp gap + 0.3 × inflation gap) − 0.1 × cash rate.
- Median House Price = migration + cash-rate + GDP offsets, compounded.
- Revenue / Spending / Budget / Debt / Disposable / Trade = the drive terms shown in the actual formulas above.
Each lever → affected KPIs and sign
| Lever | What a higher value does |
|---|---|
| topTax | revenue +, budget +, disposable income −, GDP growth − |
| effectiveTax | revenue +, budget +, disposable income −, GDP growth − |
| companyTax | revenue +, budget +, GDP growth − |
| gst | revenue +, budget +, inflation +, GDP growth − |
| defence | GDP growth +, unemployment −, spending +, budget −, debt + |
| health | GDP growth +, unemployment −, spending +, budget −, debt + |
| education | GDP growth +, unemployment −, spending +, budget −, debt + |
| welfare | GDP growth +, unemployment −, spending +, budget −, debt + |
| infrastructure | GDP growth +, unemployment −, spending +, budget −, debt + |
| cashRate | inflation −, house price −, wage growth −, debt interest +, GDP growth − |
| migration | house price +, GDP growth +, inflation +, unemployment −, trade + |
| carbon | inflation +, GDP growth −, trade − |
| offshoreTax | revenue +, budget +, GDP growth −, trade + |
| globalMinTax | revenue +, budget +, GDP growth −, trade + |
| taxFreeThreshold | disposable income +, GDP growth +, revenue −, budget − |
| infraBank | GDP growth +, spending +, debt drag +, debt +, disposable income + |
| nuclear | GDP growth +, unemployment −, inflation −, carbon output − |
| wealthFund | revenue +, budget −, GDP growth −, debt − |
| super | investment/GDP +, retirement wealth/disposable +, budget/revenue − |
| cgtDiscount | lower discount: revenue +, house price/investment/GDP − |
| payrollTax | lower rate: employment/GDP +, revenue/budget − |
Units & definitions
Current baselines
| BASELINE key | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| gdpGrowth | 2.1 | % | RBA SMP May 2026 |
| gdp | 2850 | $bn | ABS |
| inflation / coreInflation | 3.5 / 3.5 | % | RBA SMP May 2026 / ABS |
| cashRate | 4.35 | % | RBA SMP May 2026 |
| unemployment | 4.5 | % | ABS |
| netDebt / grossDebt | 18.8 / 34 | % GDP | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| budget | -1.6 | % GDP | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| taxRevenue / spending | 25.5 / 27 | % GDP | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| wageGrowth | 3.4 | % | ABS |
| topTax / effectiveTax / companyTax | 45 / 25 / 30 | % | TradingEconomics auto-refresh monthly |
| gst | 10 | % | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| defence / health / education / welfare / infrastructure | 2.2 / 1.9 / 1.1 / 8 / 1.5 | % GDP | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| migration | 340 | k / yr | ABS |
| housePrice | 810 | $k | TradingEconomics auto-refresh monthly |
| carbon | 0 | $/t CO₂ | TradingEconomics auto-refresh monthly |
| offshoreTax / globalMinTax | 15 / 15 | % | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| taxFreeThreshold | 18.2 | $k | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| infraBank | 1 | % GDP | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |
| nuclear | 0 | % electricity | TradingEconomics auto-refresh monthly |
| wealthFund | 12 | % GDP | Budget 2026-27/Treasury |